The Earth is warming more quickly than anticipated. Global surface temperatures have risen by approximately 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels and are now approaching 1.5°C—a crucial limit to prevent the most severe and lasting impacts on both people and the planet. Without drastic changes, global surface temperatures are projected to surpass 1.5°C in the 2030s and could reach 3°C by the century’s end.1
At 1.5℃ of global warming, 350 million people residing in urban areas will face water shortages due to severe droughts—this number will rise to 410 million if temperatures increase to 2℃.2
If no measures are implemented, droughts and floods in Central Asia could cause economic losses amounting to as much as 1.3% of GDP annually. Additionally, crop yields are anticipated to drop by 30% by 2050, potentially resulting in approximately 5.1 million internal climate migrants by that year.3
Projections indicate that average temperatures across the region could rise by up to 6.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. The resulting physical impacts are expected to include changes in precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme heat events, and increasing dryness.4
For Central Asia, the IPCC (2021) anticipates several significant changes in climate impact drivers (CIDs), including some with ‘high confidence’. The IPCC predicts an increase in average temperatures and extreme heat, alongside a reduction in cold spells and frost. Additionally, they note that, apart from the decrease in frost, these changes have already been observed during the historical period analyzed. These trends are alarming, especially since the IPCC (2021) also projects, with high confidence, other changes like the loss of snow, glaciers, and ice sheets—a decline that has already been seen in parts of the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. (Sorg et al. 2012; Barandun et al. 2020).5
