Central Asia is highly vulnerable. Droughts and floods could cost up to 1.3% of GDP annually and cut crop yields by 30% by 2050, potentially forcing 5.1 million people to migrate within their countries. Governments must prioritise adaptation and protect livelihoods.
Central Asia will likely experience severe warming. By 2100, the region could heat 2–6 °C, faster than the global average. At 5–6 °C, drought, heatwaves, disrupted rainfall and worsening aridity become the norm. Governments must strengthen climate policies and regional cooperation.
Glaciers are retreating rapidly. Tien Shan glaciers have already lost 27% of their ice since 1961, and up to half could disappear by 2050 – threatening water, agriculture, hydropower and ecosystems. Governments must act to safeguard critical resources.
