April 11, 2024 
3 min read 
CAPS Unlock convened a roundtable in Astana on April 11, 2024, to explore the concept of strategic autonomy for Central Asia, drawing inspiration from the European Union’s experience and considering avenues for enhanced regional cooperation.
The keynote address was delivered by Nargis Kassenova of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, also a co-founder of CAPS Unlock. A response was provided by Yerkin Tukumov, director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI).
Kassenova presented a report proposing that Central Asia, like the EU, should pursue its own version of strategic autonomy, defined as the ability to act independently in securing the region’s interests, stability, and prosperity. She argued that growing geopolitical pressures, particularly stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine and global economic decoupling, have made stronger EU-Central Asia relations increasingly desirable. For the EU, the region offers vital resources such as energy and uranium. For Central Asia, EU partnerships provide opportunities for diversification, investment, and institutional development.
She emphasized that strategic autonomy does not mean isolation but rather smart interdependence. The EU’s post-World War II integration, beginning with the European Coal and Steel Community, could offer lessons for Central Asia. In this context, she proposed that water and energy cooperation could form the backbone of a regional integration initiative. A practical step would be the creation of a regional Water-Energy Commission, supported by a Council of Ministers, to coordinate policy and attract investment.
Tukumov responded with cautious support, highlighting that Central Asia lacks the shared historical trauma that fueled European integration. He stressed the importance of developing indigenous frameworks that reflect the region’s specific realities. Rather than replicating EU models wholesale, he suggested looking to ASEAN as an example of more flexible and pragmatic cooperation. Tukumov called for greater institutional capacity across Central Asian states, arguing for a shift away from elite-driven politics toward more systemic interagency collaboration. He also warned against framing strategic autonomy as distancing from Russia, emphasizing the need for realism and balanced relations with all major powers, including both Russia and China.
Audience questions explored themes such as political liberalization, the role of civil society and informal networks (including NGOs), linguistic diversity, and the challenges of regional integration in light of divergent political trajectories (e.g., Kazakhstan vs. Kyrgyzstan). Panelists agreed that meaningful integration requires bottom-up momentum, investment in regional institutions, and a shared long-term vision, not merely presidential will.
The session concluded with a broad consensus: Central Asia must define its own path toward strategic autonomy. The EU can serve as a catalyst and partner, but not as a blueprint to be copied. Regional cooperation should be strategic, focused, and realistic, beginning with sectors like energy and transport, while gradually building the political and societal cohesion needed for deeper integration.
A video of the discussion may be viewed here.
